Cinderella Betting, If the Shoe Fits

Cinderella Betting, If the Shoe Fits

h644CB482Whenever we decide to sit down and check out some racing, place a few bets, maybe even just cast our eyes over the ratings or a few horses for the day. We need to realise that to evaluate any race you must have already decided what to take into consideration. Its no good just assessing each race and type in the same way, you need a little more than that.

I’m sure by now you are all aware that by using the Software/Ratings that this is the starting point on your quest to finding winners or losers depending on your betting preference.

Let me give you an example,

Trying to pick a winner on the AW race for example means you should consider two things. 

1: Ground Suitability,  Look for horses who have proven AW ability.

2: Maybe best to leave races which have question marks against first time runners who maybe expected to perform under circumstances which are to great. Sounds simple and common sense but you would be surprised how many people ignore this.
Within racing its always best to look at the facts, speculate yes by all means, ask questions, but please don’t try to bend the rules, or make something fit which has no place been there.

It’s funny i say this as i do sometimes still get the urge on some races to take on the best horses in a race, by that i mean i might spot a better value bet somewhere else within the race, a horse which has a good chance, even though i know the favourite or another horse will win, don’t ask my why or how i just know it, i can’t explain it, its kinda like a weird insight. 

Even with this though at times I’m still temped like i say to make the shoe fit as it were.

” Whenever this type of race crops up i call this strange phenomena, Cinderella Syndrome “

It seems to happen on less exciting betting days or ones which seem to have very little going for them, 99% of the time i leave such race types alone and so should you. However the odd time i just like to see if i can turn the tables on not only myself but also the race runners.

Square peg round holeYou know what though, this actually does help you get more focused and back to basics, as most of the time i realise i can’t make the shoe fit. Obviously i don’t bet on such foolish races, but it doesn’t stop me from trying to sometimes force a square peg through a triangle hole.

If you have a think back over your own races which you have dealt with or tried to do something similar with then i bet you can see something similar in your own working methods, you should be able to say to yourself, actually yeah i was going wrong here or i shouldn’t have tried to do that.

Just make sure you don’t do it again and i guarantee you will increase your winning percentage, just by not trying to force the issue.

Concentrating your efforts on the front end of the market is the best option, and a case can be made for this in most races and most betting types unless you are solely looking for value, which usually means a much lower strike rate.

” If you look at the front of the market and you find a suitable contender then why worry to much about what’s happening at the lower end of the market? “

The reason I say this is due to the fact that I know and you know, that the software and the ratings are already pointing you in the right direction. You can already see the top horses within the race so what if we actually looked even closer and in detail?  Then this is the answer to our daily selection making questions and process. If by doing this and all the evidence comes back as positive then you really are good to go. What more can you really do. I do think at times though people struggle with the whole where to start, what to look for, what to ignore, and its difficult to pass the correct information on quickly. 

In most races however there will be one solid looking horse and another danger to him. When you look into the race in more detail you will often then find there is another threat to both these runners, a horse who just has something about him/her.

This is where form reading and having a keen eye for detail and a clear head will allow you to interpratate the information in the correct manor. Its all about having a working knowledge and a set plan which allows you to assess any race you decide to look at. 

As long as you can use methods to find one maybe two solid selections, even a look at the betting market can be a good indication as to whether an experienced horse or an unproven horse is worth looking at in closer detail.

Getting back to our AW example I would suggest that the opportunity for course specialists is something to take into consideration as well as potential laying opportunities horses with none or very little AW form, just something to pay attention to. 

All the best

BSG

 

Betting Software Guy

Here at iRace Vision, you’ll find a recollection of the BSG as he’s known (Betting Software Guy) thoughts and opinions based on  professional experience regarding subjects and issues that are of interest to us all in the horse racing environment. Initially the blog was established as a means of bringing help and advice to people in a interesting way. BSG is passionate about horse racing, and has gone from novice punter to self taught pro, software developer and owner over the last 15 years. His main focus is to provide his members with the best quality horse racing software and racing advice, he has a tendency to make a lot of video tutorials and has developed a number of methods and free training over the years. If his head is not stuck in a book or reading horses form, or working on new ways to find more winning selections then he aint happy. You may find him at the race course from time to time or occasionally horse riding, however his days or ever hoping to become a jockey were delivered a cruel blow when he was introduced to the world of pastry at a young age. Feel free to take a look around and leave a comment, you can contact the BSG on the details below. 

8 thoughts on “Cinderella Betting, If the Shoe Fits
John

I don’t know if my last comment went threw I was wondering the types of races you prefer to bet and how do you place your bets

    Betting Software Guy

    Hi John, just to answer the last part of your comment, i use betfair mainly of which i have 2 account, years ago i had 6 accounts at one time, but i do have Ladbrokes, William hill, Bet 365 accounts.

Alan

Hi I assume it’s you. Any way I fully agree with all weather especially when it comes to a track like Southwell if a horse has not won or placed at this track I leave well alone O.K I might miss a few winners but I bet I’m better off in the long run.
Regards Al

    Betting Software Guy

    Hi Alan, yep its me just having a re-brand 🙂 thanks for the comment and its certainly the best way if not sure, like you say especially at Southwell. Have a good weekend

Alan

Hi I assume it’s you. Any way I totally agree especially when it comes to a track like Southwell if a horse has not won or placed on this track I tend to leave well alone. In my book if it aint done it I wait till it has, O.K I might miss a few winners but I think I’m better off in the long run. Different subject have you or anyone else come up with killer settings for the selection picker side of things ie dark horse selection picker. Must be getting even lazier in my old age, your fault for coming up with the F.L system saving me hours of form study and I love it, click, click an it’s done all there in front of me 🙂
Regards Al

    Betting Software Guy

    Hi Alan, we are working on a few new updates and other things at the moment. Nothing ready to be released yet though.

floss

Good points. Thanks

    Betting Software Guy

    Thanks, hope you enjoyed the read.

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